How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.